РКСМ(б)

As the “special military operation” (SMO) reaches its third anniversary, Russian society remains caught in an ongoing imperialist conflict — one that has not weakened the power of big capital but has, on the contrary, further strengthened and entrenched it.
Despite the proclaimed “clash of civilisations,” trade between Russia and the EU continues, while the wealth of Russian billionaires is reaching record highs.
At the same time, workers face unprecedented pressure: rising debts, deteriorating working conditions, and declining living standards.
RKSM(b) wishes to emphasise that these processes have natural causes rooted in the logic of imperialist system development.
Recent history shows that periods of military conflict and peace are simply different expressions of inter-imperialist competition, while temporary alliances and “truces” between imperialist powers are highly unstable and often driven by the economic interests of ruling elites.

Assessment of World Events

The launch of the “special military operation” marked the escalation of contradictions among imperialist powers: on one side, the bloc of American and European capital backing the Ukrainian bourgeoisie, and on the other, an alliance of the Russian bourgeoisie with predominantly Chinese and Iranian capital.
Alongside trade wars and diplomatic “dirty deals,” the inter-imperialist confrontation since February 2022 has frequently given rise to open military conflict.
After all, as history shows, imperialists tend to engage in all kinds of competition, combing and adapting the tactics to maximise their own gains.
The tragedies of millions who lose their homes, loved ones, and lives around the world mean nothing to the imperialists.
The ongoing negotiations (or rather haggling) between representatives of the American and Russian ruling classes serve as yet another device of imperialist rivalry. The former have shifted their public stance not out of any genuine “peaceful” intentions, but purely in pursuit of their own imperialist interests.
To grasp the nature of these interests, it is essential to examine the major changes that have occurred within the global imperialist system over the past three years.
The military conflict in Ukraine since February 2022 has compelled European monopolies and their states to accelerate their transition towards a “war economy.”
According to the European Defence Agency, military spending by the European Union — one of the key organisations of the Euro-Atlantic imperialist bloc — increased sharply by 10% in 2023 compared to 2022, breaking historical records in absolute terms for the second consecutive year and exceeding 300 billion euros.
A special report prepared for the European Commission by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö also proposes measures to strengthen the EU’s overall military capacity and defence, particularly through further budget increases.
Similar trends are evident in NATO — another crucial tool, often described as the “war club” of American and European capital.
The alliance expanded with the accession of previously “neutral” Finland and Sweden in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
European states are substantially increasing their financial contributions to NATO compared to the previous decade.
There have been increasing calls to reinstate compulsory conscription in several NATO countries, including Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, with Latvia having already restored it in 2023.
Major corporations such as Rheinmetall AG and Thales are reaping substantial profits from global supply contracts, including Ukraine, as well as from capital expansion opportunities via the construction of new production facilities.
Recent appeals from representatives of American capital to significantly increase European states’ spending on NATO further suggest that “defence” budgets are set to continue rising.
In these circumstances, the bourgeois dictatorship in many European countries is replacing its traditional representatives with ultra-right-wing forces, and sometimes even overt fascists, who are taking over from social democratic, liberal, conservative, and other bourgeois parties that have been enforcing capital’s offensive against workers for decades.
Bourgeois governments in Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, France, and Germany, which have shifted further to the right in recent years, are creating increasingly favourable conditions for the intensified exploitation of workers. They continue and deepen the policies of their predecessors, promoting further expansion of the private sector — for example, in healthcare — while workers’ incomes continue to decline.
At the same time, they frequently propagate chauvinistic anti-migrant rhetoric to channel popular discontent and “let off steam.”
Clearly, these tactics are not unique to Russia, a point we have repeatedly emphasised. The crisis of the imperialist system — and capital itself — knows no national boundaries.
Therefore, there is no reason to hope for “peace” on the European fronts.
All parties are actively increasing their armaments and preparing to suppress home fronts, whether by force or deception, hamper any workers’ resistance to the anti-popular policies of bourgeois governments.
Any “truce,” even if achieved in Ukraine, will not bring lasting benefits or peace to the majority of the population. Instead, it will serve merely as a respite for imperialist forces to regroup and prepare for further military conflicts.
Furthermore, contradictions continue to exist within the Western bloc itself: the United States, as the dominant imperialist power, imposes economic decisions — such as the supply of liquefied natural gas — and political measures — like arming Ukraine and deploying troops — that do not always align with the interests of the European bourgeoisie.
The Middle East has become another major hotspot over the past three years, where imperialist powers wage their conflicts by inciting the workers against each other.
A ceasefire was recently declared in Gaza, temporarily halting the mass extermination of the population and the destruction of infrastructure. However, it does not address the underlying contradictions that sparked the conflict.
On the contrary, much like the situation in Ukraine, all signs point to the likely resumption of military actions in the region.
Plans to displace Palestinians to other countries, hand over control of the Gaza Strip to the United States (and its monopolies), and transform it into a “resort” have been openly discussed. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, the Israeli military launched a new operation called the “Iron Wall” immediately following the Gaza ceasefire.
The coup in Syria in November 2024 also shifted the balance of power in the region, weakening the influence of Iranian capital as well as that of its Russian and Chinese allies.
In this context, leaders of Israel and the United States have openly declared their intention to “finish off” Iran, while Iran itself shows no signs of backing down.
These facts alone demonstrate that on this front too, the contradictions between imperialist blocs cannot be resolved through any “truces” or “ceasefires” among the imperialists themselves.
So, why are the intense military conflicts that have ravaged the imperialist system and caused immense suffering over the past three years now being frozen?
The answer lies in the contradictions between the largest imperialist powers — chiefly American and Chinese capital — which are organising blocs around themselves.
American monopolies aim to weaken their main rival, Chinese capital, by enticing one of China’s closest allies, Russia, with which ties have deepened significantly over the past three years in both economic and military-political spheres. For the same reason conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are being temporary freezed — conflicts that directly or indirectly benefited Chinese monopolies, and diverted the attention and substantial resources of American capital away from China and the critical US-China flashpoint in Taiwan.

The interests of the United States in the Arctic also cannot be overlooked, as they are crucial for the continued success of its technological and economic war against Chinese corporations — which are likewise seeking access to the rare minerals preserved in the Arctic glaciers, with Russian capital serving, to a significant extent, as their conduit.

At present, it is too early to speak of any cooling in relations between Russian and Chinese capital, as trade volumes have recently reached record highs, and reciprocal visits by high-ranking officials continue to be announced.
However, the basis for contradictions does not disappear as long as capitalism exists, and the situation can shift at any moment.
In this case, it is enough to recall the situation in the Russian automotive sector, which was rapidly overtaken by Chinese manufacturers, capturing nearly 60% of the market by early 2024.

The assets of foreign companies — acquired for a pittance after their withdrawal from Russia due to the start of the SMO and the resulting sanctions — have done little to bolster “domestic” manufacturers. These companies struggle to sell their products in a relatively small market overwhelmed by the sheer volume of Chinese goods.
Moreover, while the prices of goods continue to rise, the income of the population (i.e., consumers) has not kept pace.
By mid-2024, the Russian bourgeois state had already begun introducing restrictive measures on car imports, such as increasing the recycling fee.
And in February 2025, amid preparations for negotiations with the United States, Russia suddenly banned the import of Chinese Shacman SX3258 trucks.
Another example can be found in one of the key sectors of Russian capital — the gas industry.
As the RKSM(b) has previously noted, China imports natural gas from Russia at a significant discount, which has at times ranged between 30% and 50%.
Gazprom, as a major gas supplier, is interested to sell Russian raw materials at even higher prices and on a larger scale in order to finance the construction of another pipeline — the “Power of Siberia 2”.

However, the project remains stalled, as the parties have been unable to reach an agreement, particularly on pricing.

Furthermore, in the run-up to negotiations between Russia and the United States, the Chinese press began asserting that China did not really need the “Power of Siberia 2”, and even suggested it would be more worthwhile to increase imports of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead.
At the same time, both China and India have suspended purchases of Russian oil.
These examples demonstrate not only the fragility of imperialist “truces”, but also the instability and internal contradictions that plague imperialist alliances and blocs.
Vladimir Lenin writes that the instability and temporary nature of imperialist “truces” arise from the contradictions between the imperialist powers themselves:

[…]Therefore, in the realities of the capitalist system, and not in the banal philistine fantasies of English parsons, or of the German “Marxist,” Kautsky, “inter-imperialist” or “ultra-imperialist” alliances, no matter what form they may assume, whether of one imperialist coalition against another, or of a general alliance embracing all the imperialist powers, are inevitably nothing more than a “truce” in periods between wars. Peaceful alliances prepare the ground for wars, and in their turn grow out of wars; the one conditions the other, producing alternating forms of peaceful and non-peaceful struggle on one and the same basis of imperialist connections and relations within world economics and world politics.

The Role of Russian Capital in the Global Redistribution of Wealth

During the period of the SMO, Russian capital has not only remained strong but has grown significantly. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (BBI), the combined wealth of the 25 richest Russians increased by $18.5 billion in 2024, and by at least another $12 billion in the first two months of 2025 alone. This upward trend in the collective wealth of Russian oligarchs has persisted throughout the entire SMO period. This is hardly surprising: despite the rhetoric of an “existential confrontation” and a “clash of civilisations,” business between Western and Russian entrepreneurs has continued. For example, the transit of Russian pipeline gas to Europe through Ukraine was only halted on January 1st, 2025. For nearly three years since the start of the SMO, gas transit continued steadily and even increased — in 2024, supplies were 20% higher than in 2023, making Russia the largest gas supplier to the EU by December 2024. Notably, even when Ukrainian forces invaded the town of Sudzha in the Kursk region, where a key gas distribution station is located, the gas transit was not interrupted. Gas still flows to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline.

From January to November 2024, supplies of non-precious metals and ore from Russia to the EU amounted to €4.54 billion. During this period, the EU purchased the largest share in ferrous metals and ferrous metal products from Russia, totalling €2.48 billion. Other in-demand metals included nickel (€891.2 million), aluminium (€850.9 million), copper (€280.1 million), along with various products made from these metals. Many of these materials are used in the production of military equipment, which can be utilised against Russia. Additionally, ore imports from Russia reached €38.1 million. The EU’s 16th sanctions package, implemented from the start of 2025, banned aluminium imports from Russia but left ferrous metals unaffected.

After the sanctions imposed in 2022, Russia actively redirected its economic relations towards non-Western markets, with Africa becoming a key focus. By 2023, Africa had surpassed both the Americas as a destination for Russian exports. The main commodities exported include petroleum products, grain, chemical products, and equipment. For instance, in 2022, trade with Africa amounted to $18 billion, and in the first eight months of 2023, it grew by 43.5% year-on-year, reaching $15.5 billion.
Russian companies such as Rosneft, Lukoil, and Alrosa have expanded their activities in Africa. Rosneft and Lukoil have invested in geological exploration projects, particularly in North and West African countries like Egypt and Algeria. As part of its strategy to diversify assets after 2022, Lukoil has also been involved in developing oilfields in Ghana and Nigeria.
Facing sanctions, Russian capital has strengthened trade relations with Latin America, particularly Brazil, which has become a major market for mineral fertilisers, importing around 10 million tonnes annually. By 2023, shipments of petroleum products to the region had also increased, highlighting the redirection of capital and resource flows. For instance, in 2022, trade turnover between Russia and Brazil reached an all-time high despite global restrictions. During 2022-2023, efforts were made to expand Russia’s presence in other countries such as Peru and Colombia through the supply of equipment and technology for energy projects.
Thus, after the start of the SMO, Russian capital partially redirected its trade relations toward China, India, Iran, and others, but did not completely sever ties with the Western bloc. The Russian bourgeoisie is maneuvering between the major imperialist powers, seeking to negotiate more favorable conditions and more profitable contracts. This once again demonstrates that there is no eternal “clash of civilizations” or fixed “world axes”; the sole motivation behind bourgeois actions has always been the thirst for profit. The only “civilization” that exists under imperialism is the civilization of the ruthless money seekers.

How Do Russian Workers Live?
In 2022, the RKSM(b) predicted that Russia’s working class would face a decline in living standards and numerous socio-economic challenges, regardless of the outcome of the “special military operation.” Unfortunately, these predictions have been confirmed.
According to official Russian statistics, the natural population decline in 2024 reached 596.2 thousand people, which is 20% higher than in 2023 and roughly the same as the population decrease in 2022. Over the three years of the conflict, fees for housing and utility services have steadily increased: prices rose by 11.57% in 2022, 2.32% in 2023, and 9.8% in 2024.

According to the survey conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics, by early 2024 Russians estimated that they needed an average of 70,400 rubles per person per month for a normal standard of living, which is 11% higher than in the second half of 2023. This figure exceeds the official inflation rate, clearly reflecting a decline in purchasing power and real living standards. By October 2024, the number of Russians with three or more loans increased by 20%, reaching 13.2 million people. Total household debt rose from 26.9 trillion rubles in June 2022 to 40.2 trillion rubles in October 2024. The Central Bank of Russia has highlighted the record level of population borrowing and mortgage loan volumes. Meanwhile, mortgage interest rates have climbed above 20–25% per annum, driven by the Bank of Russia’s key rate reaching 21% by the end of 2024. Preferential mortgage programmes are not accessible to everyone, and the size of the preferential mortgage portfolio has significantly shrunk, causing many Russians to delay purchasing housing.
At the same time, the combined wealth of Russia’s 25 richest oligarchs rose to $360.2 billion. Moreover, the number of billionaires decreased from 123 to 88 at the beginning of 2022 but grew back to 125 by early 2025. Financial capital activity in Russia has also increased: banks are actively acquiring industrial assets and transport infrastructure, and expanding their lending. In 2024, bank owners reported record profits and paid out record dividends to shareholders, including the government. These facts alone reveal who the true beneficiaries of the conflict are. Society is clearly divided — enormous profits on one side, and debt slavery and unfulfilled needs on the other.

The RKSM(b) stated that the systemic problems which will inevitably confront the Russian government and businesses over time will be resolved at the expense of the workers. Although the average working day length reached an 11-year high in 2023, businesses and their experts complain that the unemployment rate is “too low,” forcing employers to offer better conditions and higher wages. However, analysts predict that the period during which workers can demand improvements will soon end, real wages will stop rising, and unemployment will return to the “appropriate” level.

In the regions under Russian control, the economic situation remains challenging. A year incorporation, Vladimir Putin identified low incomes and rising prices as the main problems facing these regions, while the timeline for raising the retirement age was shortened from the initially promised “in 10 years” to “in less than 5 years.”

The rapid rise of fascist tendencies in Russia is striking. Over the past three years, right-wing ideologies and organisations have gained significant popularity. State media actively promote the ideas of the philosopher Ivan Ilyin, who was an advocate of nationalism and Russian fascism who collaborated with the German Nazis during World War II. His concepts, particularly those concerning the “Russian national spirit” and Russia’s exceptionalism, are increasingly embraced by official authorities and are contributing to the radicalisation of public consciousness. Nationalist and religious-monarchist movements, backed by oligarchs like Malofeev and others, have significantly strengthened their influence with open support from the state, particularly the Foreign Ministry. Historic organisations from the era of the Russian Empire, such as the “Union of the Russian People,” are being revived. This ideological strengthening is further reinforced by potential cooperation with right-wing groups in the West, as the idea of a “conservative axis” enters public discourse. Amid these developments, anti-migrant rhetoric is intensifying. Right-wing groups like “Northern Man”, “Two-Headed Eagle”, and the “Russian Community” actively promote anti-migrant hysteria at the grassroots level and receive police backing, conducting joint raids to identify illegal migrants — even within educational institutions.

What Can Russian Workers Expect?

The war affects different classes in completely opposite ways: while the bourgeoisie becomes richer, it is the workers who pay the price — with their health, lives, and growing hardship. As we noted on the first anniversary of the SMO: “while an ordinary labourer spends the remaining penny on the goods that got more expensive or chips in for body armour for his comrade that has recently got mobilised, big business continues to increase its profits.” And the trend remains unchanged.

Therefore, Russian workers should not expect relief from any outcome. The RKSM(b) warned of this right at the very beginning of the SMO: “Regardless of the outcome of the ‘special operation of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine’, the working class of both countries in the very near future will face a significant decline in living standards and will be forced every day to cope with numerous social and economic problems.”

We should expect not only a decline in the overall standard of living but also a direct increase in exploitation. A law draft has already been prepared that would double the allowable overtime hours while reducing the pay for it, allow early cancellation of paid vacation for workers in hazardous productions, expand the grounds for employer-initiated dismissal, as well as introduce other changes.
One reason for the rise in exploitation is the shortage of labour. During the war, a large portion of the working-age population went to the front — either through mobilisation or as a result of widespread, sometimes imposed, recruitment campaigns for contract service. At the same time, the fall in the ruble-dollar exchange rate, along with artificially fuelled chauvinism, xenophobia, and increased attacks by far-right groups, led many migrant workers to leave Russia. As a result, capital is both increasing pressure on the remaining workers to maintain profits and seeking new labour reserves to flood into the market. It has been proposed to lower the minimum age for heavy and hazardous work from 18 to 16. Earlier, in 2023, rules were relaxed to allow teenagers from age 14 to be hired more easily. As a result, the number of working teenagers increased by 40% in 2023. Additionally, women are now being encouraged to take on jobs that men have left. The Ministry of Labour has reduced the list of hazardous jobs where women’s employment was previously restricted. Women can now work as operators and machinists of excavators, loaders, and self-propelled machines at open-pit mines, construction sites, reserves, mines, and other industrial facilities.
On the pretense of a “conservative turn,” pressure on young people is increasing to try to improve the demographic situation. The state is already pursuing such policies: restricting abortion rights, proposing tougher divorce laws, and offering small payments for having children while still studying in some regions. The media regularly promotes the “Orthodox-traditional” agenda, claiming that Russian women should be “pressured” to shift their focus from education to having children. The results speak for themselves: population decline records continue to be broken every year. Seeking to control its internal problems and address labour shortages, capital is moving towards dictatorship and ugly imitations of the monarchical Russia “we lost.”
The increased pressure on workers in the economic and social spheres will inevitably be accompanied by a tightening of the bourgeois dictatorship in the political realm. It is already becoming dangerous to hold leftist or communist views. For example, a forensic examination recently identified signs of “terrorism” in Lenin’s writings — an alarming precedent that could threaten the dissemination of Marxist classics. The search for “internal enemies” who oppose the bourgeois agenda is likely to intensify. It can be expected that groups already receiving state support — such as Northern Man, the Russian Community, and others of their kind —will become more active and be granted even greater freedom to “restore order on the home front” and “protect the population from the migrant threat.”
Increased repressions can be expected whether the war continues or ends through an imperialist deal. If the war goes on, public fatigue and discontent will continue to build. This discontent may be further fuelled by frustration: negotiations between Russia and the United States have raised hopes among Russians for a quick end to the war, and the collapse of those talks would be felt as a serious blow. The bourgeoisie will have no choice but to suppress growing discontent — even before it fully emerges — by relying on law enforcement.

If an imperialist deal is struck and the major capitalist groups of Russia and the United States come to an agreement on the division of Ukraine, state propaganda is likely to present this as a “victory” and the “achievement of the goals of the SMO”. Against the backdrop of this supposed triumph, a crackdown on “internal enemies” accused of obstructing the “special military operation” can be expected. At the same time, the deep divisions within society may be temporarily masked by a general sense of relief at the war’s end. There may also be attempts to redirect the frustration of returning soldiers — fueled by the actions of the Ministry of Defence and the government — towards so-called “traitors” among those who opposed the SMO. As a result, pressure on workers in the spheres of the economy, politics, and culture will not only continue, but may even intensify.

Conclusion

The analysis of the situation both within Russia and internationally demonstrates the natural decline of the imperialist system. The “special military operation”, economic sanctions, and trade wars are all different expressions not only of competition within the ruling class but also of the class struggle itself, in which big capital continues to increase its profits by intensifying the exploitation of the working masses.

The global situation confirms the thesis that all imperialist alliances and ceasefires are temporary. Periods of peace are continually replaced by military conflicts, which in turn lay the groundwork for new wars. This trend is particularly evident in Europe, where the economy is becoming increasingly militarised, military spending is rising, and conscription is being reintroduced in several countries.
Regardless of the outcome of the “special military operation,” the prospects for the Russian proletariat remain bleak. If the military conflict continues, we can expect growing discontent among the masses, which will be met with repression by the state’s security apparatus. Even during a possible temporary truce between capitalist factions — amid the expansion of Russian capital into new markets, the realignment of trade flows, and the revival of industries — there is little reason to expect any improvement in the negative trends, which point to a declining standard of living and the ongoing decline of the Russian population.
In these circumstances, workers must continue to strengthen international solidarity and develop organisational forms of struggle against imperialism. Experience shows that the unity among imperialists exists only in their shared goal of exploiting the working class. Therefore, it is the working class that must demonstrate genuine solidarity in the fight against this era of global exploitation and oppression.
Russian youth are showing growing interest in ideas of social justice, and it is especially encouraging to witness the strengthening of connections between different groups of workers: wage earners, scientific intellectuals, and students. We contribute to building these ties through the collaboration of the Revolutionary Komsomol with the Russian Labour Front (RLF). Together with our comrades, we are working to establish a genuine communist party in Russia. Experience demonstrates that even under the most challenging circumstances, it is possible to develop a movement for fundamental, qualitative social change if it is built on a strong organisational foundation.
The history of the international communist movement teaches us that even during the harshest periods of counter-revolutionary offensives, it is crucial to remain steadfast in our principles and to methodically prepare for the next phase of class struggle.

Central Committee of the RKSM(b)